On December 22, 2032, asteroid 2024 YR4 will sweep through the Earth–Moon system on a route built for astronomy headlines. Current orbit data place it roughly 173,000 miles from Earth’s center, followed by a pass about 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) from the Moon’s surface.
That lunar distance is less than the width of Earth measured twice across. For a 60-meter object orbiting the Sun, it is a remarkably close piece of celestial choreography—and an opportunity to measure how precisely astronomers can forecast a small body years in advance.
Webb’s 2026 observations transformed a broad range of possible positions into a much sharper route. Earlier data had supported a real lunar-impact probability of about 4%; the new measurements changed that assessment. The asteroid’s close passage remains the main event: a small, distant world moving through our local cosmic neighborhood while telescopes watch every available photon.