At one point, ESA’s estimated chance of YR4 hitting Earth reached 2.8%. That number was neither hype nor a failed prediction. It was the result produced by the observations available at that moment—and it was high enough to command worldwide attention.
Picture a blurry weather cone stretched across a map. As new observations arrive, the cone gets narrower. If your town remains inside while the cone shrinks, its share of the remaining possibilities can briefly grow. Once the cone tightens enough to move past your town, the risk drops away.
That pattern unfolded in public with YR4. Later observations shifted and narrowed the possible 2032 positions until Earth fell outside the corridor. The changing odds captured science in motion: every telescope image redrew the map of one of the closest and most closely watched future asteroid passages.