Seven years from today, 2024 YR4 will sweep through the Earth–Moon neighborhood. The leading estimate still gives it a 4.3% chance of meeting the Moon—roughly 1 chance in 23—and a 95.7% chance of passing by.
That small possibility has stayed with us because YR4 has become extraordinarily faint. The asteroid is now too distant for ordinary ground-based follow-up, rather like a charcoal pebble vanishing down an unlit road. Astronomers expect it to become comfortably observable again in 2028, when a new set of positions should tighten the forecast.
Until then, the uncertainty is part of the story. A lunar impact would not threaten Earth or shove the Moon from its orbit. It would make a new crater while telescopes watched, giving planetary scientists a rare before-and-after experiment. A close miss would be compelling too: a building-sized asteroid threading the space around our nearest neighbor. Either way, December 22, 2032, has earned a small circle on the astronomy calendar.